Secular Trend: Commodity Cycle

28 Nov 2019 . Category: Investment

Investment Thesis

Since the financial crisis of 2008 and the resulting QE, financial assets have significantly outperformed real assets. The following chart shows just how extreme this outperformance is:

Interest rates now around their limits at the zero bound, new policies are being considered (MMT) which are said to be much more inflationary.

The last time we were in an inflationary environment was 1970s, equities were shunned and commodities performed very well. My thesis is that in the near future, the bear market in real assets will end and they will once again outperform.

Considering the ~10 year underperformance of commodities in the above chart, revision to the mean that they could be a good place to be.

In the event of a recession, my expectation is for the value of real assets to drop as well as equities. If they were to fall, then they’re falling from a low base and I’d expect a quick recovery. Equities could take a decade to recover.

Method

Coming soon….

I plan to expand on this theme in the future. In the meantime, here’s an interesting post from GoRozen.

Simon White


Me

Iain Benson is a real person and not a grassy plant viking. He lives in Northern Spain. In his spare time, Iain likes tinkering with his Raspberry Pi, going for long walks and drinking wine. Preferably all at the same time.